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  • Swiss Central Bank Holds Key Interest Rate
    By admin on September 29th, 2009 | No Comments Comments

    The Swiss National Bank left its three month libor target rate without change in line with market forecasts at 0.25%. The statement from the Central Bank outlines their commitment to supplying liquidity and safeguarding the Swiss franc versus the euro.

    It seems that after the positive retail numbers the SNB has revised its GDP growth estimates, and now expect Switzerland’s economy to fall between 1.5% and 2%. Although it may not seem like a positive it is because of their earlier forecast of a fall between 2.5% and 3%. Rising unemployment and a deepening recession might convince the Swiss National Bank to return to its previous estimate.

    For more Swiss and International Economic data visit FXEconostats

  • Institutional Trading Strategies
    By admin on September 16th, 2009 | No Comments Comments

    Expert: Andrei Pehar, Sr. Currency Strategist at fxKnight.com
    Moderator: Maud Gilson
    Start: Wed, Sep 16 2009, 16:00 GMT
    End: Wed, Sep 16 2009, 16:45 GMT
    Participants: 1 pre-registered participants

    Summary:
    It’s no secret that bank traders move the markets. And in order to beat them at their own game, you need to be able to think like they do, and have an understanding of the tools and strategies they use. In this seminar fund manager and trading coach Andrei Pehar will give you a rare glimpse into the world of forex insiders. He will also cover important topics such as trading psychology, position sizing, risk-to-reward ratios, and system expectancy – subjects often overlooked by trading “systems” which only emphasize signals for entries and exits. You will also have an opportunity to ask questions and have your own positions analyzed by a seasoned pro.

    Who is Andrei Pehar?

    Andrei Pehar will be key speaker at the FXstreet.com International Traders Conference in October 2009 in Barcelona (Spain). More info about the ITC here.

    Andrei Pehar is a sought-after speaker and coach for professional traders and individual investors alike. He has made frequent appearances at events such as the World Money Show, the Energy Forum, and the IX Investor conferences.

    He is the author of “Trading Forex for a Living”, coming soon from Harriman House, and is a regular contributor to BabyPips, DailyFX, FXStreet, and International Business Times. His site fxKnight.com provides free tools and strategies for active traders (including live chat, strategy forums, training videos, worldwide market news, and streaming ForexTV).

    At a young age Andrei was already playing in professional chess tournaments, and went on to further hone his strategic skills through years spent studying Japanese martial arts. From both worlds, he brings with him a unique perspective to the financial markets.
    Software instructions
    HotComm is the multimedia communication tool we will be using to host our New Live Market and Education Sessions. With hotComm you will be able to hear our expert comments dissecting a trade while they show you the graphic resources and the steps they use in their daily trading. This is a fully collaborative tool, so don’t hesitate, interaction will be the key to success, by sending your live questions to the experts.

  • London Session Scenarios on GBPUSD & GBPJPY
    By admin on September 16th, 2009 | No Comments Comments

    *) This is the password you need to enter the hotComm room, not your FXstreet.com user account password.
    Expert: Mihai Marinescu, Website Manager & Trader at TradeCADJPY.com
    Moderator: Maud Gilson
    Start: Wed, Sep 16 2009, 08:00 GMT
    End: Wed, Sep 16 2009, 08:45 GMT
    Participants: 39 pre-registered participants

    Summary:
    In this webinar, FXInstructor.com trader and mentor Mihai Marinescu will first have a look at GBPUSD & GBPJPY from an Elliott Wave perspective. After drawing the big picture for these pairs in near-term and mid-term, he will point out possible entries and manage existing trades with a comprehensive and efficient short-term strategy. Join us for a free analysis & trading session during peak market hours!

    Who is Mihai Marinescu?
    Mihai holds a BA in Political Science, and before becoming active in the investment sector worked for almost 3 years as web designer and IT trainer for his own small company. He thinks that trading has always been somewhere at the back of his head, so when he first heard about Forex he knew that this is where he would find the professional satisfaction and challenge he was looking for.

    Learning the ABC of trading was fast, due to intense interest to aquire new information and the presence of 2 mentors, which both shaped his way of thinking and taught him how to survive as a trader. He started his own website – www.pipsandtips.com – where he began offering his services as an analyst and signal provider to thousands of regular subscribers. Recently, together with his FxInstructor colleague Nader Moustafa he has been developing a trend forecasting barometer, offered for free on http://FxTrendMeter.com.

    After 3 years of active trading, he got involved in the FXInstructor project (http://FXInstructor.com) as he believes that education is the fastest way to master the market. “Our students should be able to understand the market and trade for themselves successfully, that is what we are here for. If they are successful, we will be successful – there is no marketing method more efficient than this in the long run”.

    His market philosophy is quite simple, as he had the chance to experience first-hand many of the obstacles that await newbies: “Don’t buy all the yada-yada that makes the Forex industry prosper and traders lose their money. Be smart, be patient, ask questions and test, again and again. Don’t believe everything you hear, but don’t reject it either: see for yourself, experience, learn and apply your knowledge. No one will be able to prove you wrong once the market and your own results prove you right”.

    Currently, Mihai holds webinars and develops educational materials in English, Romanian and Spanish for FXInstructor, LLC.

    Software instructions
    HotComm is the multimedia communication tool we will be using to host our New Live Market and Education Sessions. With hotComm you will be able to hear our expert comments dissecting a trade while they show you the graphic resources and the steps they use in their daily trading. This is a fully collaborative tool, so don’t hesitate, interaction will be the key to success, by sending your live questions to the experts.
    Donwload hotComm CLMore informationHelp

  • Money Management in FOREX Using Pareto Law
    By admin on September 8th, 2009 | No Comments Comments

    Money Management in FOREX Using Pareto Law

    How can I manage my money in FOREX?, How can I control my money while trading and direct it in the positive way always and avoid to lose much money in such an aggressive and fast market?

    These and much more questions are being asked daily by a lot of traders around the world, most of these questions are focusing on the best ways to get profits, from a long experience trading FOREX I could say that the best way to get profits in FOREX market is to avoid or at least reduce loss and this can be achieved by a good money and risk management technique. A lot f these techniques were studied and published, a lot more are being published daily.

    One of the best techniques I studied and used was applying Pareto law to the trading system, this law states “for many events, roughly 80% of the effects come from 20% of the causes.”, this law is also known as the 80-20 rule, the Pareto principle, the law of the vital few and the principle of factor sparsity and it was named after the Italian economist Vilfredo Pareto who noticed that 80% of the lands in Italy was owned by 20% of the population at that time.

    How can we use this as a money management technique?, while it is not hard to use this principle for that purpose it’s not easy to keep running in FOREX market “specially for fast traders and scalpers” because it requires to organize and observe trading , writing down every trade you enter and analyzing these trades digitally to get a specific results like which pairs are the best for your trading system and give the best return, what are the best suitable times for trading and which trading systems are the most profitable trading strategies.

    Still we have to discuss the mechanism of integrating the Pareto principle into money management system for FOREX trading, as I mentioned above it is not hard to use and apply it to the trading system, it is very flexible so you can apply it in many ways like :

    1. Some people will observe trades and will from the result of this observation focus on the most profitable 20% of pairs those gave them 80% of income during exercise period which I recommend it to be at least 3 months.
    2. Some others will be focusing time of trading, getting the most suitable 20% time of trading for them “times of successful trades” that they made 80% of successful trades during and of that they can know when the most they are trading successfully.
    3. Stop loss and take profit points are important spots to be highlighted by this system, imagine how much will you save if you know the 20% take profit points that gave you 80% of the return and the 20% stop loss points that gave you 80% of your loss, so you can get the best ranges to use when you setup a take profit or stop loss point “i.e. if get 80% of my return of 20% of take profits that ranges 50 pips, I would setup my take profit points around that number always and vice versa in stop loss points case”.
    4. Others would be focusing on trading systems, indicating which are the responsible systems for the most of profits or the most of losses in that period of time.

    There are a lot of other factors in FOREX trading for achieving gain that can be observed and analyzed based on this principle, combining three to four f them would maximize your profits and reduce your losses dramatically but this is the most hard way to maintain a suitable money management strategy using Pareto law as this requires you to observe your trades and organize them for a long time accurately, this only would affect your trading negatively as you would not be able to enter short term trades easily if you do not have good tools to do.

    This is why I recommend you to put every element in a spreadsheet separately and trade in a normal mood, after the examining period over you would be having a lot of data to analyze and get the results for them, hence you would have the ability to combine the results and get the best overall result for the best pairs you are trading profitably, the best take profit and stop loss points ranges and the best time you are trading them, combining these best results you will have a new result which would be for sure the responsible for around 80% of you return.

    Once this get done, you are having a suitable FOREX money management strategy that you can depend on, but try to update it always to get the best out of it and notice that “80%” and “20%” are the theoretical numbers, they will differ for sure while keeping just around them.

  • Money Management and the Trading System
    By admin on September 8th, 2009 | No Comments Comments

    I found an interesting post on how to build your MM from your trading method characteristics:

    Quote:
    Once you have a profitable method, you need to know a couple of things about it’s characteristics. You need to know the maximum drawdown and the % of losing trades before you can apply money management to your method. You should have a minimum of 100 trades (either real or hypothetical) to base the calculations. Why at least 100? Because we need a stable database. At 100 trades, the standard error is 10% (1/sqrt(# trades)). This is acceptable when getting started.

    How often should you hit a new equity high? It can be calculated by using the % losing trades. Here’s how, take the % of losing trades and multiply it by itself until the number is approx. .01 (meaning 99% chance of seeing a run of however many times you do the mutiplication). For example, if I have a method that loses 40% of the time, then the number will be (.4*.4*.4*.4*.4 = .0124). This means a method with 40% losers will have no more than 5 losers in a row 99% of the time. Next, take the number of consecutive losses and multiply by 3. In this case, the number will be 15. This is called the trading cycle. The cycle is the maximum number of trades that should happen before a new equity high is achieved. Draw a line every 15 trades on your statements and make sure a new equity high is hit within the 15 trade period.
    If not, the % of losers is probably greater than the sample used to caluclate this and is a warning sign of a unstable trading method. Use a higher % of losers and re-calculate until each equity peak is within every cycle.

    How many contracts should I initially trade? This is largely dependent on how much pain you can stand. If you don’t mind a large % drawdown, then your number’s will be higher than someone else. Take the amount of equity in your account and multiply by your maximum acceptable drawdown as a % of your equity. For ex. if you have 20k and you don’t mind a 40% drawdown, then 20k * .4 = 8k. Next, divide the max. acceptable drawdown by the observed drawdown. For ex. if the method had a max. drawdown of 2k then 8k/2k = 4. This would be the initial number of contracts to trade in the market.

    When do I change the size? First, if the max. drawdown as seen in the past is hit, STOP trading. Once the new drawdown has stopped and a new equity high has been achieved (paper trading), then re-calculate the money management numbers and start over.

    As far as compounding goes, take the starting equity + (maximum drawdown * 3). Once the account equity goes above this number, you can safely add another contract. Ex. if I start with 20k and the max. drawdown is 2k then when the account goes above 26k, then I can add another contract. You should also do the initial calculation and make sure it’s acceptable before adding to your size. In this case the 26k * .4 = 10.4k. The 10.4k / 2k = 5.1, so it’s okay to increase from the 4 contracts to the 5 and stay within the acceptable drawdown.

    (from acrary at EliteTrader)

    What process did you follow to deduct your MM from your trading system? Anything close to the method above? What would you recommend?

    Thanks.

    Here’s another one; it packs in a couple of equations the number of lots advocated by different methods:

    Quote:

    As is often the case with these “experts,” they take a really simple concept, find a way to make it seem complicated, and then sell a book “explaining” the concept. For those who don’t feel like wading through the books:

    Ralph Vince, fixed fractional contracts = constant * account_size
    Ryan Jones, fixed ratio contracts = constant * squareroot(account_size)

    Rewriting those formulas slightly:
    Vince: contracts = constant * power(account_size, 1)
    Jones: contracts = constant * power(account_size, .5)

    There you have it. The big difference is one uses a power of 1 and the other uses a power of .5.

    But hey! Maybe it’s better to split the difference! I hereby proclaim that my secret power of 0.7 is the key to the universe. I’m going to hire Richard Josselin to go around the country teaching people that the secret to wealth is my formula: QQQQ (four-Q) Ratio: contracts = constant * power(account_size, .7)

    Disciples who master the beginners course will be eligible for my advanced course (for only $2,999 paid in advance) where they learn that .7 can be changed to something else. Flash (lightbulb comes on) we also need to consider the per-contract risk (max possible loss) of each trade in the formula. Four-Q Super Ratio:
    contracts = (constant/risk) * power(account_size, power_factor).

    Advance disciples will be let in on the ultimate secret (for only $29,999 paid in advance.). Flash (solar flare) we should define our max risk by using an adaptive volatility-based disaster stop. Four-Q Ultimate Formulas:
    risk = disaster_stop = constant * volatility contracts = (constant2/volatility) * power(account_size, power_factor) And there you have our ultimate position sizing formula.

    The rare students who master it will have discovered the Mother Lode and shall hereinafter be referred to, in hushed tones, as Mother Four-Qers. :-) Seriously though, that last one ain’t bad. Assuming you use a volatility based stop, you can optimize for the terms “constant,” “constant2″ and “power_factor”, as well as how you calculate the volatility, to find something that works pretty well for your particular system, goals and risk tolerance.
    (from DH Dennis at EliteTrader)

  • Reviewed Forex Signal
    By admin on September 5th, 2009 | No Comments Comments

    NetPicks Overview

    NetPicks has been around since 1996 providing traders with successful trading strategies.  Over the last several years, they have been highly focused on the forex market and providing the highest probability trading signals out there.  When you sign up with NetPicks, you get more than just monthl trading signals, you receive access to their premium educational webinars from top currency analysts, real-time alerts to yout cell phones, access to automated trading systems and 24 hour support. NetPicks also offers a free 2 week trial of their services so you can test it and see if it is for you.

    Pros of NetPicks

    • Partnering with a signal company who has been in business for nearly 15 years
    • Free optional auto trading service
    • Instant notification of trades
    • Strategies that are based on more than 10 years of forex trading experience
    • System that has proven succesful for years
    • Free 2 week trial

    Cons of Net Picks

    • NetPicks is only meant for people are serious about trading in the forex market.
    • There are monthly fees instead of a one-time fee, so NetPicks can have traders monitoring the system and updating it for changing market conditions.
    • Overall, the system has been very successful

    Getting Started Using NetPicks

    The best way to get started it testing it out to see if it is right for you. If you sign up HERE you can get a Free THREE Week Trial (instead of their normal two week trial). This should provide enough time to evaluate their trading strategy and determine if their automated trading system or trade alerts are best suited for you.

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