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  • The Exact Figure of Debts in Europe and the USA
    By admin on September 7th, 2009 | No Comments Comments

    Counting the unprecedented amounts of private and personal debt in Europe and the USA is an impossible task. Just imagine to first identify all data input sources only to arrive at the point where debt data has to be offset with savings data, equa(tiona)lly difficult. As all this would be too much of an unreachable perfect world I first throw a couple of figures – like in Texas Hold’em poker – on the desk before telling you the exact amount of the Western world’s debt.

    • World GDP: $50.000.000.000 (TRILLION)
    • US GDP: $14.000.000.000 (TRILLION)
    • Notional value of OTC derivatives >$700.000.000.000 TRILLION
    • Unfunded US liabilities: > $134.000.000.000.000 (TRILLION)
    • 2009 US Deficit: who knows (after all budgetary tricks?)

    I may remind readers that the 10 most-indebted countries in the world are the USA by a long shot, followed by 9 European nations. And now after the jump see the exact figure of Western debts.

    In my humble opinion the debt is

    SIMPLY TOO MUCH TO REPAY
    Prove me wrong.

    Once we are at exponentially creating new TRILLIONS macro data are no more guidance for a manipulated stock market, where the privileged few appear to have a pre-order order-flow monitoring in operation. Ironically it’s said HFT (high frequency trading) computers trashing the debt system where it’s not anymore about investing into a company’s future but about moving the Himalayas everyday in order to take home a cobble stone. Can somebody dig in the archive when the first 100 million hostile takeover filled business paper’s pages? I bet its not more than 25 years.
    It makes no more sense to bet on a get-out-the-dollar card in the monopoly of debt played nowadays. Federal Reserve Notes will fade sooner than most of us believe. Better be out several months ahead then 1 day too late. The Euro may be around a little longer than Sterling, which may share its last ride with the USA. The faster this biggest write-off in history is behind us, the earlier one could draw plans that include the lessons learned in this global financial meltdown.
    One thing is undeniably correct: All unbacked paper currencies devalued more than 90% within a human lifespan. In most cases this happened much faster. To now begin again another draft for the modification of a sure-to-fail fiat money concept that always ended in hyperinflation since 1720, when John Law started financing the French king’s parties with in specie currency, is like trying to plant palm trees in the Antarctic.
    Why is there no discussion of a metal standard among the armies of economists that would shine out from the mass accepting fiat currency without second-questioning it first?
    UPDATE: The financial Tsunami may arrive quite soon, if this FASB proposal will become legislation, forcing all risks on the balance sheets of banks at mark-to-market.

  • New 2009 List of Silver Mining Companies
    By admin on September 6th, 2009 | No Comments Comments

    As this list of silver companies published in 2007 has become the most-read blog post this year I felt compelled to update it.
    Compiling a list of silver companies is controversial as there are only very few pure silver plays.
    The white metal is mostly mined in combination with gold or base metals which can dramatically change the bottom line of silver miners. In some cases the mining of base metals and gold can lead to negative cash costs for every ounce of silver produced.
    Silver is primarily used in jewellery and the best metallic electric conductor. For more applications for silver check this webpage by preciousmetalinvestment.com.
    Expecting silver prices to multiply in the next 5 years these companies give extra leverage – if their plans come true.
    All silver stocks got hammered in 2008 in the biggest crash in the mining sector in the last 80 years. Do your own research as some companies are trading at less than the cash they have in the till.
    While the IPO train on Wall Street has become a train wreck due to the hesitancy of investment banks when underwriting new issues, junior miners are not dependent on conventional measures to raise capital.
    They (better) know how to attract investors with a long term horizon directly, as I was able to witness myself when living in Vancouver in 2007.
    Vancouver stock exchange is the primary market for junior miners for all kinds of resources. The market had had a shady reputation in the 1980s but has cleared up his act by establishing mandatory reporting rules for junior miners. Its most important improvement was the introduction of standards for reporting new metals reserves.

    GRAPH: Silver is a lot more volatile than gold while physical demand is unprecedented. The Austrian Mint produces silver Philharmonics 24/7 since introducing this bullion coin in 2008. Silver currently trades at a ratio of 1:63 to gold. In the long term this ratio has been closer to 1:15, leaving enormous upside potential for silver that could easily lead to a price around $40 next year. Chart courtesy of stockcharts.com.

    I consider investments in exploration companies as very risky and build up positions very slowly. But they come with a notable exception to the golden rule that for every percentage point of possible reward there is an equal risk.
    In the case of explorers/developers there is an exception to the rule: As long as one invests without leverage there is a risk of 100% but a multiple of that in possible gains when an explorer hits silver indeed. When researching risky investments like this very small sector with only a few billions in market capitalization I look mainly for the following:

    • Quality of management. Check the track record of management in past mining ventures.
    • Management’s stake in the company. If they don’t sell or even buy more it is usually a good sign.
    • Delays. Are there any delays in realizing the company’s ventures ?
    • Cost per ounce. What are the company’s cash costs per ounce produced? How much do I pay per ounce when I buy their shares?
    • Institutional shareholders. Which funds own the company, which analysts cover the stock?
    • Proximity to production. Potential gains are higher with explorers in the early stages, but so are the risks. I like companies in the process of finalizing the feasibility study for financing or – at a later stage – companies that are close to production.
    • Political risk. Your due diligence has to include the respective stability of the country where your miner digs the money out of the ground.

    In respect of the political risk I also shun US based silver miners as there exists a possibility that the government can nationalize virtually any company under the Trading With the Enemy Act, which became law in 1917 during World War I and applies during declared wars, and from 1977’s International Emergency Economic Powers Act, which can be applied without declared wars. Read more on this issue on GATA’s website.
    Marc Courtenay has recently penned a story at SeekingAlpha that deals with the possibility of another confiscation of gold and silver and mining shares by the US government. Seeing all the current nationalizations of car makers, banks and the health sector in the USA I don’t rule out anything anymore.

    List of Silver Explorers, Developers and Miners
    Here comes the list of more than 100 silver companies (click the name for the company’s website and the ticker symbol for price information):

    Abcourt Mines (ABI.V): Gold, silver and zinc in Quebec
    Alexco Resource (AXR.TO): Silver in Canada
    Apogee Minerals (APE.V): Silver, lead, zinc in Bolivia
    Aquiline Resources (AQI.TO): Silver and gold in Argentina, Canada and Mexico
    Arian Silver (AGQ.V): Silver in Mexico
    Aura Silver (AUU.V): Silver in Canada, El Salvador, Mexico, USA
    Aurcana (AUN.V): Silver, gold, lead, zinc in Mexico
    Aurex BioMining AG (not listed): Silver in Austria
    Avino Silver & Gold Mines (ASM.V): Silver, gold, zinc, copper, lead in British Columbia
    Bear Creek Mining (BCM.V): Silver, gold in Peru
    Canadian Zinc (CZN.TO): Silver, zinc, and lead in Canada
    Canarc Resources (CCM.TO): Silver in South America
    Canasil Resources (CLZ.V): Silver, gold, copper, lead, zinc in British Columbia and Mexico
    Capstone Mining (CS.TO): Silver in Mexico
    Chariot Resources (CHD.TO): Silver and copper in Peru
    Chesapeake Gold (CKG.V): Silver, gold, zinc in Mexico and the USA
    CMC Metals (CMB.V): Silver in Canada
    Coeur d’Alene (CDE): Silver and gold in Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Mexico, USA
    Compania de Minas Buenaventura (BVN): Precious metals in Peru
    Continuum Resources (CNU.V): Silver, gold in Mexico
    Cornerstone Resources (CGP.V): Gold, silver, copper, nickel, VMS, potash, and uranium properties in Canada and Ecuador
    Cream Mineral Resources (CMA.V): Silver, gold, base metals in Canada, Mexico and Sierra Leone
    Dia Bras Exploration (DIB.V: Silver, copper, zinc in Mexico
    Eagle Plains Resources (EPL.V): 35 gold, silver, uranium, copper, molybdenum, zinc and rare earth mineral projects in Canada
    Eastfield Resources (ETF.V): Gold, copper, silver, nickel, molybdenum and Platinum Group Metals in Canada and USA
    ECU Silver Mining (ECU.V): Silver, lead, zinc in Mexico:
    Endeavour Silver (EDR.TO): Silver in Mexico
    Esperanza Silver (EPZ.V): Silver in Mexico, Peru
    Excellon Resources (EXN.TO): Silver in Mexico
    First Majestic (FR.TO): Silver in Mexico
    First Point Minerals (FPX.V): Silver, gold, base metals in Mexico and the Americas
    Fortuna Silver Mines (FVI.V): Silver in Mexico
    Fury Exploration (FUR.V): Silver in Canada
    Genco Resources (GGC.TO): Silver in Mexico
    Gitennes Exploration (GIT.TO): Silver, gold copper in Peru
    Gold Hawk Resources (CGK.V): Gold, silver, lead, zinc and copper in Peru
    Golden Goliath Resources (GNG.V): Silver, gold in Mexico
    Great Panther Resources (GPR.TO): Silver in Mexico
    Hecla Mining (HL): Silver, gold in Mexico and USA
    Hellix Ventures (HEL.V): Silver, gold in Mexico
    Herencia Resources (HER.L): Silver, lead, zinc in Chile
    Hochschild Mining (HOC.L): Silver in Argentina, Chile, Mexico, Peru
    Huldra Silver (HDA.V): Silver in Canada
    Impact Silver (IPT.V): Silver in Mexico, Dominican Republic
    International Minerals (IMZ.TO): Silver, gold in Ecuador and Peru
    Intrepid Mines (IAU.TO): Silver, gold in Australia and Indonesia
    Journey Resources (JNY.V): Silver, gold, lead, zinc in Mexico, Peru, USA
    Kenrich-Eskay (KRE.V): Silver, gold in Canada
    Kimber Resources (KBR.TO): Silver, gold in Mexico
    Kings Minerals (KMN.AX): Silver, gold, copper, rhenium, molybdenum in Australia and Mexico
    Klondike Silver (KS.V): Silver in Canada, Mexico
    LKA International (LKAI.OB): Silver, gold in USA
    Logan Resources (LGR.V): Precious metals, base metals and uranium in Canada
    MacMillian Gold (MMG.V): Silver, gold in Mexico
    MacMin Silver (MMN.AX): Silver in Australia
    MAG Silver (MAG.TO): Silver in Mexico
    Marifil (MFM.V): Silver, gold, base metals in Argentina
    Mexican Silver Mines (MSM.V): Silver in Mexico
    Milner Consolidated Silver Mines (MCA.V): Silver in Canada
    Minefinders (MFL.TO): Silver, gold in USA
    Minera Andes (MAI.TO): Silver in Argentina
    Mines Management (MGT.TO): Silver, copper in the USA
    Minco Silver (MSV.TO): Silver in China
    Mindoro Resources (MIO.V): Silver, base metals in the Philippines
    Mountain Boy Minerals (MTB.V): Silver, gold, base metals in Canada
    Normabec Mining (NMB.V): Silver, gold in Canada and Mexico
    Orko Silver (OK.V): Silver in Mexico
    Oremex Resources (ORM.V): Silver in Mexico
    Oro Silver (OSR.V): Silver in Mexico
    Pacific Comox Resources (PCM.V): Silver, gold, molybdenum, base metals in Canada
    Palmarejo Silver and Gold (PJO.V): Silver, gold in Mexico
    Pan American Silver (PAA.TO): Silver in Bolivia, Mexico, Peru
    Pershimco Resources (PRO.V): Silver, gold in Mexico
    Piedmont Mining (PIED.OB): Silver, gold in USA
    Portal Resources (PDO.V): Silver, gold in Mexico, USA, gas and oil in Mexico
    Quaterra Resources (QTA.V): Silver in Mexico
    Redcorp Ventures (RDV.TO): Silver, gold, copper, lead, zinc in Canada
    Revett Minerals (RVM.TO): Silver, gold, copper in USA
    Sabina Silver (SBB.V): Silver in Canada
    Scorpio Mining (SPM.TO): Silver in Mexico
    Silvercorp (SVM.TO): Silver in China
    SilverCrest Mines (SVL.V): Silver in Chile, El Salvador, Mexico
    Silver Dragon Resources (SDRG.OB): Silver in China
    Silver Eagle Mines (SEG.TO): Silver in Mexico
    Silver Fields Resources (SF.V): Silver in Canada, Mexico, USA
    Silver Grail Resources (SVG.V): Silver in Canada
    Silvermet (SYI.V): Silver in Canada, Turkey
    Silvermex Resources (SMR.V): Silver in Mexico
    Silver Quest Resources (SQI.V): Silver in North America
    Silver Standard (SSRI): Silver in Argentina, Australia, Mexico, Chile, Peru, Canada, USA
    Silverstone Resources (SST.V): Silver in Mexico
    Silver Wheaton (SLW): Silver in Greece, Mexico, Peru, Sweden
    SNS Silver (SNS.V): Silver in the USA
    South American Silver (SAC.TO): Silver in Bolivia, Chile
    Southern Silver (SSV.V): Silver in Mexico, USA
    St. Eugene Mining (SEM.V): Silver, lead, zinc in Canada
    Starcore (SAM.TO): Silver, gold in Mexico
    Stealth Minerals (SML.V): Silver, gold, copper in Canada
    Sterling Mining (SRLMQ.PK): Silver in USA
    Stroud Resources (SDR.V): Silver, gold, natural gas in Mexico
    Teryl Resources (TRC.V): Silver, gold, copper in Alaska
    Tumi Resources (TM.V): Silver in Mexico, Sweden
    UC Resources (UC.V): Silver, gold in Mexico
    US Silver (USA.V): Silver in the USA
    Valencia Ventures (VVI.V): Silver in Australia, Canada, Chile, USA
    Yale Resources (YLL.V): Silver in Mexico

    Useful links for research and information on silver companies:

    NOTE: Please email me if I have missed out on one or more silver companies in order to update this list.

  • List of Silver Mining Companies
    By admin on September 6th, 2009 | 1 Comment1 Comment Comments

    The surge of silver prices after the usual summer correction is a fitting impulse to publish this list of mostly Canadian-listed silver companies.
    Companies are grouped into explorers/developers and producers. Compiling a list of silver companies is controversial as there are only very few pure silver plays. The white metal is mostly mined in combination with gold or base metals.
    Seeing silver prices multiplying in this decade these companies give extra leverage – if their plans come true. As I am still scouting the sector for more purchases I do not disclose my current holdings.

    GRAPH: Silver seems to have ended its correction. The metal is a lot more volatile than gold. Fundamentally a 16-year supply deficit speaks for itself. Silver currently trades at a ratio of 1:50 to gold. In the long term this ratio has been closer to 1:15, leaving enormous upside potential for silver that could easily lead to a price around $25 next year. Chart courtesy of stockcharts.com.

    I consider investments in exploration companies as very risky and build up positions very slowly. But they come with a notable exception to the golden rule that for every percentage point of possible reward there is an equal risk. In the case of explorers/developers there is an exception to the rule: As long as one invests without leverage there is a risk of 100% but a multiple of that in possible gains when an explorer hits silver indeed.
    When researching risky investments like this very small sector with only a few billions in market capitalization I look mainly for the following:

    * Quality of management. Check the track record of management in past ventures.
    * Management’s stake in the company. If they don’t sell or even buy more it is usually a good sign.
    * Delays. Are there any delays in realizing the company’s ventures ?
    * Cost per ounce. What are the company’s cash costs per ounce produced? How much do I pay per ounce when I buy their shares.
    * Institutional shareholders. Which funds own the company, which analysts cover the stock?
    * Proximity to production. Potential gains are higher with explorers in the early stages, but so are the risks. I like companies in the process of finalizing the feasibility study for financing or – at a later stage – companies that are close to production.

    Here comes the list of 62 silver companies (click the name for the company’s website and the ticker symbol for price information):

    Explorers/Developers
    Abcourt Mines (ABI.V): Gold, silver and zinc in Quebec
    Alexco Resource (AXR.TO): Silver in Canada
    Apogee Minerals (APE.V): Silver, lead, zinc in Bolivia
    Arian Silver (AGQ.V): Silver in Mexico
    Aquiline Resources (AQI.TO): Silver and gold in Argentina, Canada and Mexico
    Avino Silver & Gold Mines (ASM.V): Silver, gold, zinc, copper, lead in British Columbia
    Aurcana (AUN.V): Silver, gold, lead, zinc in Mexico
    Aura Silver (AUU.V): Silver in Canada, El Salvador, Mexico, USA
    Baja Mining (BAJ.TO): Silver, copper, cobalt, manganese, zinc in Mexico
    Bear Creek Mining (BCM.V): Silver, gold in Peru
    Canasil Resources (CLZ.V): Silver, gold, copper, lead, zinc in British Columbia and Mexico
    Continuum Resources (CNU.V): Silver, gold in Mexico
    Eagle Plains Resources (EPL.V): 35 gold, silver, uranium, copper, molybdenum, zinc and rare earth mineral projects in Canada
    Esperanza Silver (EPZ.V): Silver in Mexico, Peru
    First Majestic (FR.V): Silver in Mexico
    Fury Exploration (FUR.V): Silver in Canada
    Genco Resources (GGC.V): Silver in Mexico
    Huldra Silver (HDA.V): Silver in Canada
    Klondike Silver (KS.V): Silver in Canada, Mexico
    MAG Silver (MAG.V): Silver in Mexico
    Mines Management (MGT.TO): Silver, copper in the USA
    Mexican Silver Mines (MSM.V): Silver in Mexico
    Minco Silver (MSV.TO): Silver in China
    Orko Silver (OK.V): Silver in Mexico
    Oremex Resources (ORM.V): Silver in Mexico
    Oro Silver (OSR.V): Silver in Mexico
    Palmarejo Silver and Gold (PJO.V): Silver, gold in Mexico
    Pershimco Resources (PRO.V): Silver, gold in Mexico
    South American Silver (SAC.TO): Silver in Bolivia, Chile
    Sabina Silver (SBB.V): Silver in Canada
    Silver Dragon Resources (SDRG.OB): Silver in China
    St. Eugene Mining (SEM.V): Silver, lead, zinc in Canada
    Silver Eagle Mines (SEG.TO): Silver in Mexico
    Silver Fields Resources (SF.V): Silver in Canada, Mexico, USA
    Stroud Resources (SDR.V): Silver, gold, natural gas in Mexico
    Silvermex Resources (SMR.V): Silver in Mexico
    SNS Silver (SNS.V): Silver in the USA
    Scorpio Mining (SPM.TO): Silver in Mexico
    Silver Quest Resources (SQI.V): Silver in North America
    Southern Silver (SSV.V): Silver in Mexico, USA
    Silver Grail Resources (SVG.V): Silver in Canada
    SilverCrest Mines (SVL.V): Silver in Chile, El Salvador, Mexico
    Silvermet (SYI.V): Silver in Canada, Turkey
    Tumi Resources (TM.V): Silver in Mexico, Sweden
    UC Resources (UC.V): Silver, gold in Mexico
    US Silver (USA.V): Silver in the USA
    Valencia Ventures (VVI.V): Silver in Australia, Canada, Chile, USA
    Yale Resources (YLL.V): Silver in Mexico

    Producers

    ECU Silver Mining (ECU.V): Silver, lead, zinc in Mexico
    Endeavour Silver (EDR.TO): Silver in Mexico
    Excellon Resources (EXN.V): Silver in Mexico
    Fortuna Silver Mines (FVI.V): Silver in Mexico
    Great Panther Resources (GPR.TO): Silver in Mexico
    Hochschild Mining (HOC.L): Silver in Argentina, Chile, Mexico, Peru
    Impact Silver (IPT.V): Silver in Mexico, Dominican Republic
    Minera Andes (MAI.TO): Silver in Argentina
    Milner Consolidated Silver Mines (MCA.V): Silver in Canada
    Pan American Silver (PAA.TO): Silver in Bolivia, Mexico, Peru
    Silver Wheaton (SLW): Silver in Greece, Mexico, Peru, Sweden
    Silver Standard (SSRI): Silver in Argentina, Mexico, Chile, Peru, Canada, the United States and Australia
    Silverstone Resources (SST.V): Silver in Mexico
    Silvercorp (SVM.TO): Silver in China

  • Iranian Oil Bourse Could Kill The US Dollar
    By admin on September 6th, 2009 | No Comments Comments

    Can the Iranian Oil Bourse become the catalyst for a significant blow to the position of worldwide power the US Dollar enjoys? Manifold supply fears have driven the price of crude oil nearwards its recent highs of $67.10 which are also only a notch below historical records in real dollar terms. With the world facing a daily bill of roughly $5.5 billion for crude oil at current price levels it becomes apparent that sellers and purchasers of the black gold are looking into all ways that could lead to a financial improvement on their respective side.
    While the worldwide bottleneck of inadequate refining facilities and partly dramatic declines in production – for example in the North Sea – are two factors that cannot be eliminated in the short term there is one area left which could result in smiling faces of oil producers and (most) buyers likewise. Non US dollar thinkers are the victim of a transaction cost in the oil trade. The necessary conversion of local currencies into greenbacks can be considered a hidden tax, charged and enjoyed by the banking sector.
    Until now oil is solely priced, traded and paid for in the greenback on both markets in London and New York. The Treasury Inflow Capital data from mid-2005 show that OPEC members have parked only a skimpy $120 billion in direct dollar holdings which are almost equally split between equities and debt paper. This is a clear indication that oil producers are investing their windfalls elsewhere. The yield spread between US and EU debt papers in favor of the EU is clearly another hint where the petrodollars might flow after conversion.
    The Iranian Oil Bourse (IOB) will become a factor that could unsettle the dollar’s dominant position.
    Especially in the case of Iran it does not make sense to accept dollars only for its much desired commodity. Being seen as a hostile country by the USA for the intention to build its own nuclear reactors one wonders whether the new IOB will not try to attract other buyers than Americans who are particularly unwelcome in that corner of the globe. Iran has recently announced that the new oil exchange will start up its computers in early 2006.
    The IOB can count on two sharp arrows in their holster. It can – and probably will – lure European buyers with oil prices quoted in Euros, saving them transaction costs. And it can strike barter deals with oil-hungry giants like China and India who have a lot of products and commodities to offer. I doubt that hamburgers and legal services will be considered adequate collateral for the world’s most aftersought resource.
    A Renunciation Of The $ Is Worse Than An Iranian Nuclear Attack
    Steering away from the almighty commodity, currency and commodity currency – the US dollar – can have a deeper impact on the US economy than a direct nuclear attack by Iran. The permanent demand for dollar denominated paper stems to a good part from the fact that until now almost all resources of the world are quoted in it.
    While this has led to the Eurodollar market in the 1970’s new terms of trade could ring in the demise of the dollar as the premier reserve currency. With the world economy depending so much on oil, the black gold itself can be seen as a reserve currency that will be handed out only against the best collateral in the future. The Fed San Franciscos’s recent paper about the progress of the diversification of international central bank’s reserves shows that the dollar position is on the decline in many countries. NOTE: China has officially declared to diversify a part of its forex holdings into oil here.
    Iran holds a strong hand as the #2 producer of crude behind Saudi Arabia. Politicians there will also keep in mind that dollar deposits might become a burden in the future when the US will step up its current war of words to the level of economic sanctions in the crusade against nuclear power plants. Money in the bank does not help when you have no access to it.
    An abdication from the current status quo has only one real enemy: the USA, where less than five percent of the global population consume roughly one third of global production. Oil in Euros would benefit several million people more in the EU and its trading partners though.
    And it would loosen the grip the USA has on OPEC members. Thinking of the rapid growth of hostilities between the USA and Arab nations in recent years a renunciation of the dollar appears to be more than just a wish in Arabic dreams.
    As this development poses a very real and big danger to the superior status of the greenback and the interests of the USA the “president of war” can be expected to steer a close reach against the winds blowing from the Middle East. One may be reminded that the Iraqi despot Saddam Hussein had entered into discreet talks with the EU, proposing to sell his oil for Euros. That was in the year before the first oil war of this century.
    In my conclusion the IOB this way could help the Euro to become the interim primary reserve currency before China and India will rise to the first two slots in the global economic ranking in the next few decades, an issue discussed in the post “What will be the next big reserve currency.”
    A decline of the dollar’s position in oil trading might also open the floodgates in other commodity markets where the dollar is the medium of exchange but where the USA has only a minority market share. A global economy driven by tough efficiency demands in the light of thin profit margins almost everywhere is a good primer for accounting changes in other commodity markets. This process could begin in resources like steel and energy and spread to all other resources that are marketed globally. The world outside the USA has a lot to gain and nothing to lose from it.

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